By Don Hart

If it's merger time, it's time to take stock of Survivor China's alliances and count up the votes. The simplicity of games like Survivor is that it all boils down to basic arithmetic. Who has the most numbers? Unless the two merging tribes are split within themselves, the tribe with more numbers will attempt to conquer the tribe with less. Often in the post-merge game, the strong tribe (here in China, Fei Long) will target the weaker team's strongest player, (Zhan Hu's Jaime).

Counting up the numbers, Fei Long will most likely have five members to Zhan Hu's three. Fei Long should be solid with Todd, Amanda, Denise, James and, after wavering a bit, Courtney. Opposing them will undoubtedly be Zhan Hu's Jaime, Erik and Peih-Gee. Will Courtney flip to Zhan Hu? From Episode 7's previews we know Todd will work to keep Courtney as an ally.

When the merge occurs, it's decision time for kidnapped Frosti and outsider Jean-Robert. Jean-Robert could easily flip to Zhan Hu. Whatever he does, however, he will be low man on everyone's totem pole. His strategy of not working, being confrontational and annoying all the women with sexist remarks and behavior leaves him with few, if any, options. He has simply played his cards very badly. His choice is between 6th or 7th in the Fei Long pecking order; 4th or 5th back with Zhan Hu.

Frosti is in a much more interesting though no less precarious position. He appears to have weaseled his way into the Fei Long gang, but he has at the same time damaged his former Zhan Hu ties. Flipping tribes has not worked out well in past Survivors. Losing the trust of his original tribe will not help Frosti. Along with James, Frosti is also a physical threat because of his potential for winning individual immunity challenges. He appears to have the brains to go along with the brawn, but the tribal reshuffle in Episode 6 has left him weakened. Todd was able to help the kidnapped James, but Frosti is going to need similar assistance or some other major good fortune if he is also going to recover from the twist.

Todd appears so far to be playing the best game. Three evictees, Leslie, Dave and Sherea, have all confirmed in their post-eviction interviews that they liked Todd. In Episode 6, Todd cemented his alliance with Amanda by going along with her wish to vote out Sherea. He also solidified his alliance with Denise and James by working to save James. Will he succeed in keeping Courtney from straying? His past acumen as well as there being no alternative for Courtney (How far can she get by flipping to Zhan Hu?) argue for Courtney to remain with Fei Long.

The safest: Courtney, Denise and Amanda. They are in the majority clique, behind the brain (Todd) and the brawn (James). This is an ideal position in which to be. If Fei Long were to splinter or be attacked, Todd and James would presumably be the primary marks.

The Least safe: Jean-Robert, as the disliked outsider, and Frosti, the wild card, both ranking low wherever they land, and Jaime, the top Zhan Hu quarry. Todd has already plotted against Jaime. He identified her as the glue that holds the Peih-Gee/Jaime/Erik triad together. She has an ongoing showmance with Erik and, after they threw the immunity challenge in Episode V, a "partners in crime" record with Peih-Gee.

Safe now but probably not for long: Peih-Gee and Erik. They have got to work at breaking up the Fei Long alliance. Zhan Hu has lost 4 of its original tribe: Chicken, Ashley, Dave and Sherea. Zhan Hu's diminished numbers put them at a distinct disadvantage. Peih-Gee and Erik must start sowing seeds of Fei Long discord.

The strongest, but in the most potentially dangerous positions: Todd and James. James's biggest danger is his physical strength, whereas Todd should be on everyone's eviction radar screen. It's Todd who is the Fei Long glue. Todd is the Survivor equivalent of Big Brother's Dr. Will and Evil Dick: the manipulator. The remaining Survivors should be targeting him and his best buddy Amanda, if not now, then soon.

For any feedback, please e-mail me at cosohub@ix.netcom.com

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